All Signs Point to Rising Home Values in Sonoma County and the Bay Area
The number of homes for sale in Sonoma County is the fewest in many decades, according to a panel of real estate appraisers who recently presented their thoughts at the North Bay Association of Realtors' weekly breakfast meeting in Santa Rosa. At the end of May of the 1900 homes technically available on our MLS, over 1,000 were already in contract, leaving only 900 homes available. This was roughly a forty percent drop from last May. Inventory is declining due to a steady increase in new and pending sales, documented here. Interest rates are ridiculously low and buyers at all price ranges conitnue to leap off the sidelines. Appraisals are often a challenge now as the market is moving too fast and overbids in pending sales are not yet reflected as SOLD data, creating large challenges for the 70% of buyers who are applying for home mortgages today. All signs point to gradually increasing home vales. Decreasing supply and increasing demand. Part of this may be attributed to the "Facebook" effect, much touted for months even before Facebook's beleaguered IPO earlier this spring. The IPO and generally strong tech economy are lifting the Silicon Valley and San Francisco housing markets to red hot levels. I was in San Francisco this morning for a seminar on real estate legal topics and heard some interesting stories that are coming out of this frenzied market. Many properties, even in the six to twelve MILLION dollar range are receiving multiple cash offers. What happens when some buyers lose out--they get creative. It is increasingly common for losing Buyers to offer cash incentives to the buyers in first position (the winning buyer) so that they will assign their rights to buy the home to the frustrated loser. How can this happen? Most standard real estate contracts are assignable, unless specifically amended. In one case winning buyer accepted $100,000 from a losing buyer to assign their right to purchase a home to the second buyer. Can you imagine how the seller feels seeing that $100,000 go to some one else? Needless to say this creates some interesting challenges for sellers and their agents to be aware of--that is why the good brokerages such as Wine Country Group, my firm, offer continuing legal education to their agents. ...
Higher Asking Prices for Homes in Many San Francisco Bay Area Communities
[caption id="attachment_1770" align="alignleft" width="636" caption="A map showing higher per square foot asking prices in certain Bay Area communities"][/caption]Over the last few weeks I have posted a lot about home sales market statistics for Sonoma County. The reason is not to be gratuitously geeky, but to provide some data, and some context for what appears to be a solidifying shift in the real estate market in Sonoma County and throughout the SF Bay Area. There is a lot I am planning to share on this subject but for now, I would just like to publish the graphic by John Blanchard and the San Francisco Chronicle from Sunday, June 3, 2012. It is based upon data from Zillow, the real estate portal, and shows a color-coded heat map of asking prices by square foot throughout the Bay Area, including Sonoma County. In certain key markets asking prices per square foot are anywhere from ten to even twenty or thirty percent above last year's figures. Why? Because there is almost NO inventory available for all the home-buyers out there. You can see on this map that Sonoma County communities such as Healdsburg and the Valley of the Moon corridor are at the higher end of these ranges. Newly pending sales are at a many year high now, and inventory in Sonoma County may be reaching an all time low. More about this in future posts. ...
Homes for Sale Inventory Drops 37% while Sonoma Home Sales Rise 21% as of May 31, 2012
[caption id="attachment_1762" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Drastically Reduced Inventory and and Increase in Home Sales Contnues as of May 31, 2012"][/caption] In May I posted a lot about Sonoma County homes sales statistics. Now it is June 1 and I was curious to see what the May sales figures had to say. Last year at this time there were 3,043 homes for sale in Sonoma County. As of May 31, 2012 there are only 1,902 (!) homes for sale here, a 37% drop in inventory. Last year 434 homes sales were completed in the month of May. This year, 524 home sales were completed, an increase of 21%. This supply and demand chart is one of the most telling for market statistics. As the supply curve drops it begins to converge with the demand curve, which has been steadily rising. When the curve converges that means prices may rise. I recently attended a gathering of about 200 realtors for a business planning conference in San Diego. The consensus there was that prices are coming up. Most analysts predict a modest increase of 3-5% nationwide. Prices seem to be rising in some of the hardest hit markets such as Las Vegas and Florida. Many Bay Area markets are sizzling hot and overbids are rampant. The Sonoma County home sales numbers seem to confirm this trend. What do you think? Last year...
Detailed Luxury Home and Ranch Report for Sonoma County Home Sales
Sonoma County Million Dollar Plus Home and Ranch Sales Report through April 2012 Here is the detailed set of tables and charts looking at the sales statistics for million dollar plus homes and ranches in Sonoma County. It would be difficult to break this data down and look at trends in the rate of sales in different communities such as Healdsburg or Sonoma since the sample size is so small. That is why we so often look at the county as a whole. Typically the most desirable locations will see the quickest rebound and highest activity. Good sales activity doesn't mean sellers can overprice their properties and hope to be successful, but they can be more positive about bringing well-presented and well-priced properties to market, because the buyers are out there. Trends of note--the number of expired listings has declined steadily over the last year. During the depths of the market downturn many properties were pulled off the market when they didn't sell. A lower rate of expired listings is obviously coupled with a higher rate of newly open contracts and closed sales. While we may have had some price declines in this segment as recently as 2011, all the signs point to stabilizing prices and possible modest price appreciation in the years ahead. All data is pulled from the BAREIS Multiple Listing Association. That is, it is provided by the various brokerages in the county from their actual listing sales data....
Sales of $1Million Dollar Price Homes in Sonoma County up and Inventory is Down
The sales of luxury homes, ranch and estate properties in Sonoma County are up significantly as of May 2012. At the same time, inventory is down and days on market are declining. All of these are encouraging signs for the overall market for higher end homes throughout Sonoma County....
Detailed Country Property Sales Report for Sonoma County
Yesterday I published a post about the dramatic increase in country property newly pending sales compared to the depths of the recession in 2009. Here is a link to the complete report. Enjoy! PLease feel free to comment or send questions. I'd love to hear from you. Sonoma County Country Property Sales Report...
Sonoma County Country Property Pending Sales up 238% Over the Market Bottom in 2009
Following (or leading?) the general pickup in the real estate market both locally here in Sonoma County, and nationwide, country properties are strong. Newly pending sales of properties on 2 acres or more in Sonoma County are at more than the three year high, up 238% !! over the same time in 2009. In fact, February 2009 was the bottom for the median sales price in the county, and the chart belo0w conveniently looks at the sales of country property throughout Sonoma County during that time. All sales that are opened don't necessarily close--there could be property "issues" or financing "issues." Still the number is a good leading indicator of market activity. The jump in sales of country properties is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than the jump in sales of all single-family residences. [caption id="attachment_1629" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Country Property Sales up 238% from Market Bottom in 2009"][/caption] Contrast this with the overall rate of newly signed contracts for all single-family residences in Sonoma County. Compared to SFD's, country property sales really took a dive when the market did the same, while sales in 2009 were focused on inexpensive single family homes and condos. The change in rate of sales for all single family homes (including country properties) has increased, but risen only 21% from the trough year in 2009. So what does this mean? In short, if you have a nice country property to sell in Sonoma County and have been on the sidelines, this spring and summer might be the right time for you to sell. Inventory is becoming more balanced between buyers and sellers, and there is strong demand. I believe that will only continue to grow, as Sonoma County's lifestyle and close proximity to San Francisco make it such a desirable place to live. Please give me a call or drop me an email if you would like to learn more! ...
Lots and Land Sales Report for Sonoma County
[caption id="attachment_1732" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Residential Lots near the Sonoma Plaza"][/caption]Since home prices declined so significantly since 2007, the market for buildable lots and land in Sonoma County has been very slow for the last few years. That has started to change as new construction is picking up again. Also, in Sonoma County, picky buyers from out of the area with specific home design desires are beginning to build their own custom homes again. Again, while the unit sales are slow for lots and land, sales are picking up. These figures do not include commercial lots, but they do include agricultural lots. The market for plantable vineyard land, and existing vineyards of high quality, is rather strong. Weighing against new construction are ever escalating contruction and building costs, along with city and county regulations. For a post on Sonoma County's Permit and Resources Department (PRMD) click here. In Sonoma County as well we are seeing an increased impact on building concerning endangered or threatened species such as the California tiger salamander, the Pritkin marsh lily and the bank swallow. Again, a caution in that the sample sizes here are so small that it is difficult to draw conclusions from them. I really am including these for reference purposes. Please let me know if you have any questions. Sonoma Lots and Land...
Russian River Home Sales Report
[caption id="attachment_1723" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Russian River Views from Forestville looking North"][/caption]The Russian River area of Sonoma County extends from Forestville, which lies between Sebastopol and Healdsburg, through Guerneville and Monte Rio to Duncan's Mills near the coast in Jenner. It also includes tiny Rio Nido, Camp Meeker and the rustic hills and forests of Cazadero. It is a very diverse area with more than its share of towering redwoods and river beaches. Historically a summer playground for San Francisco, the river also is a full time home to many. Homes can be more affordable here. Recently the river market was slower to react to the housing crisis, but saw its share of foreclosures and distressed properties later on. Aa elsewhere, inventory is declining as sales volume improves. One thing I'd like to point out with these charts is that many of them show the number of bank-owned properties that have sold as a percentage of the overall market. This would be true for any of the sales reports I have posted. Russian River Home Sales Report ...
Coastal Sonoma Home Sales Report
[caption id="attachment_1717" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Bodega Harbour View on a not so Sunny Day"][/caption]The Sonoma Coast is truly one of the most magnificent places on earth. Every once in a while I catch a car ad on TV and I say--hey that is just north of Jenner. I guess the art directors for the advertising companies agree. The recent Tour of California saw the race emerge on the coast above Jenner and travel down Route 1 to Coleman Valley Road, where they made their way back inland (and uphill) to the finish. The unit sales in the coastal market are in the single digits, not including Sea Ranch to the north. So, the statistical value is week. The coastal market was very hot this last winter, which is one of the most beautiful seasons on the coast. We can be socked in with tule fog inland and it will be bright and sunny out in Bodega Bay, as I discovered last winter when I was showing property from Dillon Beach to Gualala. Even with the small sample size, the behavior of the real estate market in coastal Sonoma this winter was an early clue to the heat of the overall Sonoma County real estate market this spring. Same message, rising sales and declining inventory. Coastal Sonoma Home Sales Report...