Sonoma County Real Estate Market Dynamics through October 2008
At first glance the overall supply and demand trends for Sonoma County real estate from October 2006 through October 2008 show gentle trend lines that belie the turbulence of our market. The number of units for sale (all residential types and all price ranges) is down modestly (3.9%) from 3284 units then to 3155 units now. The peak was 3608 units for sale in August 2007 with some seasonal trending over the 25 months. The number of units sold has increased by a robust 33% however, to 508 units from 381 units in October 2007. Days on market for properties in contract has declined from 93 days (peak 112 in January 2007) and the number of properties under contract has grown significantly from 372 to 553. The number of pending Sonoma County home sales is the highest in 4 years. Last year at this time, pending sales were hovering between 166 and 286 units per month! Now they are running 450 to 550. The reason for the change? Banks got aggressive and drastically lowered the list prices of bank-owned (REO) properties creating lots of competitive, interested buyers. The true story behind any particular home investment is driven by intensely local conditions rather than broad average trends: single family home, country property, vineyard property, fixer or condo. It is absolutely a function of price point with the bulk of the activity under $500,000. The following graph shows the same trend lines as above(active inventory versus sold listings) for all residential Sonoma County sales under $500,000. Since the median home price was nearly $600,000 at the market peak in 2005-2006, very little was available under $500K. Since then, it has declined county wide on average jut over 30%--there's that word again, on average.   While the overall number homes for sale has declined slightly since October 2006, under $500,000. it has nearly doubled. The number of units sold in this price range has increased nearly 200% in the last 25 months. Bottom line is the banks figured out pretty quickly how to move REO inventory and both investors and first time buyers are competing for the best of these homes. Result--inventory is declining faster than it is coming on the market and overall sales velocity has increased, all fueled by the REO bargains.  ...
October Sonoma County Real Estate Sales Snapshot
This week I received this quick sales snapshot from Rick Laws, my broker at Coldwell Banker.  It provides a 13 month overview of Sonoma County residential sales activity at all price ranges and in all locations county wide. Sales activity and area trends vary widely by price and location but this is a quick view based upon MLS data pulled by Brokermetrics. In about a week I will have more detailed information available covering the various price points and separating out condo activity. Sonoma County Real Estate Market Dynamics October 2008                                Oct 07       Oct 08        # Units Change       % Change Under contract      227             604                       377                     166% Sold                      227              488                        261                    115% New listings           530              551                          28                      5% The biggest takeaway here is that this is the first time in over two years that the number of newly opened escrows has exceeded the number of new listings.  Despite everything that happened in the financial markets in October, the number of newly opened escrows was up 166% and hit its highest point year over year. In addition, the number of closed escrows reached a new high for the year. We all know that not every opened escrow will close-but the number of newly ratified sales continues its upward trend, and bucks the national trend. The tail wagging the dog in this market continues to be the REO (bank-owned) home at the low end with an increasingly high volume of sales under $500,000 for both single family homes and condos. Sales through October seem to be driven (this is anecdotal) equally by first time buyers or owner occupants and real estate investors....
Are banks still funding home loans in Sonoma County?
Everyone is unsettled these days and no surprise. There are a few questions or comments that I am hearing repeatedly from clients and friends. The first is the question above. With a cataclysmic world-wide banking crisis occurring over the last few weeks, I guess that is a logical question to ask. Can I still get a home loan today? Well, home sales are still occurring, especially at the entry-level as indicated in previous posts. Jumbo loans are dicier and the larger jumbo loan limits expire at the end of December so we perhaps that is a cause of the flurry of real estate sales activity in our county in the mid-price ranges of $500,000 to $1 million. While rules have tightened to sometime excruciatingly comical levels (some of the stories I have heard could fill another post or two) the flow of mortgage funds has continued. Kenneth Harney, in the San Francisco Chronicle on Sunday October 19th, gives a good overview of our current state of home lending. Credit squeeze, credit freeze, credit system seizures: Everybody knows how severe and painful the global financial breakdown has been - with banks unwilling to lend even to other banks. But what about mortgages and real estate? Can you still get a home loan with less than a 20 or 30 percent down payment? Or with a credit score below 720? Absolutely. It would be a big stretch to label housing the sunny side of the market at the moment, but there's a lot more light there than in most other financial sectors. Consider these facts: -- There is no shortage of money available for home mortgages, no freezing of credit to purchase or refinance a house. Why? Because the American mortgage market effectively has been federalized - at least for the time being. More than 90 percent of new loans now are being made through the Federal Housing Administration insurance program, plus Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHA is owned by the federal government, and Fannie and Freddie are operating under federal conservator-ship. All three have unfettered access to global capital markets at rock-bottom costs because their borrowings are fully guaranteed by the Treasury. Ginnie Mae, which is FHA's pipeline to the bond market, recorded an all-time high of $29 billion in new mortgage-backed securities issued in August. -- Loan terms and credit underwriting standards have been toughened up, but you can still put down 3 percent (3.5 percent after Jan. 1) on...
Sonoma County Real Estate Market Pulse October 2008
The market for single-family homes under $400,000 is so strong in Sonoma County that it makes the overall sales rate in the county qualify as a sellers market, with only 4.5 months supply of inventory based at the current sales rate.  Last September there were 14 months of inventory available county wide. The fact is that the banks who have foreclosed here are the dominant seller in the county with over 40% of the sales. Since last fall they figured out they needed to slash prices in order to get them moving, and the strategy has been successful. One lender, Otto Kobler of Maximum Mortgage in Santa Rosa has told me that we are halfway through digesting the major wave of adjusting loans from 2005 which began hitting the market as REO's last September. Since March, open escrows month by month have exceeded the sales volumes of the last two years and they continue to climb. Real estate investors and first time buyers are snatching up homes at prices not seen since 2002 in some cases.  Condominiums are selling fast with median prices under $200,000. The number of newly ratified contracts (open escrows) is increasing rapidly as the number of new listings county wide slows. These overall market trends are very misleading however as sales volumes and inventories at higher price points are in very different territory. The action is at the low end and sellers of more expensive properties are seeing definite declines in volume. The market needs to digest the inventory at the lower end to acheive some stability. There are some amazing bargains out there for first time buyers and investors. ...
SNAPSHOT view of Sonoma County Real Estate Sales in a Wild Week
Just opened up our weekly office sales update and was curious to see how sales activity was affected last week given the horrendous economic news. Had all business activity ground to a halt? Yes some folks are deciding to sit on the sidelines for a month or two or six. But what did I find for our office as a whole? I found a very normal to high level of activity for the week. (I should mention that Coldwell Banker Santa Rosa has over 100 active agents and our sales totals are generally about double of the second ranked Sonoma County real estate office. ) 30 New Listings (19 are bank-owned or REO properties-only 4 are priced over $500K) 29 New Sales (open escrows) 29 Brave souls who dared to put pen to paper last week and not run for the hills. On the sub-500 price range, about half appeared to be first time buyers and the rest investors.   We normally run somewhere between 20 and 30 sales per week so this is a typical number. 19 of these are bank-owned properties. 22 Closed Sales of the closed sales, 14 were bank-owned properties. The biggest trend difference we see is not the numbers of transactions but the price points and this is a consistent phenomenon since early 2008. Of the new listings, only 4 were priced over $500,000. Of the closed sales, only 3 were priced over $500,000 and two of those 3 were priced over $1,000,000.  By far the lion's share of our business right now is the entry level priced bank-owned properties. I should mention that our office is home to James Madison, who has approximately 50% market share for REO properties in Sonoma County and some inventory in some of the surrounding counties as well.  ...
Every weekday is Broker tour day in Sonoma County Real Estate
Most Sonoma county realtors could spend a good four or five mornings per week touring new listings in Sonoma County. Some folks call them caravans. It would take at least 2 weeks of doing so to hit all the new listings on tour because of dueling chapter schedules and a large county. What a Sonoma County Realtor could do every weekday morning Monday Generally quiet but groups such as Marketing Masters and Homescopes meet on Mondays, plus there are some office meetings. Tuesday The main Santa Rosa Chapter meeting of NORBAR (the North Bay Association of Realtors). As many as 100 to 150 realtors attend a breakfast meeting, educational session and swap information on upcoming listings, buyers needs, rental requests and market updates. Property tour ensues for Santa Rosa. One week is East side, one week the west side. Mike Kelly cracks the whip so you'd better stick to business! Wednesday The Sebastopol, Russian River and Petaluma chapters of NORBAR have their breakfast meetings --see above for the agenda. Sebastopol, Russian River and Petaluma property tours. Thursday The Healdsburg chapter of NORBAR, The Cotati-Rohnert Park chapter and many of the large brokerage offices such as all the Coldwell Banker offices (separately), CPS and Prudential have their own sales meetings, marketing sessions and broker tours.  Our Santa Rosa office (over 100 agents) meeting and tour covers the East side of SONOMA county one week and the West side the next. That means we could be looking at properties from Cloverdale and Healdsburg down to Petaluma on the same morning (theoretically!). This is why FOOD at broker open houses is so important, and water on hot days. Got to fuel the troops! Friday Friday morning is the weekly meeting of the Windsor Chapter of NORBAR and the Windsor tour. Cloverdale is in their somewhere as well. That means the average Sonoma County Realtor could spend 16-20 hours per week at breakfast meetings, marketing sessions and on property tour and still not cover the whole county. How do you use your time?  How much time every week do you tour and network with other realtors? What is the main benefit of attending these meetings? (Next post an update on some interesting new listings on the market in Santa Rosa, from a lovely view home on 2 acres to 2 Rincon Valley bargains and and Junior College duplex.)...
Sonoma County Real Estate Market update through July 2008
Supply and Demand Every month I receive enough market statistics from Rick Laws, my broker, to fill reams of blog posts, even if there are no such things as reams when it comes to blogging. But you and I would be bored if all I wrote about was market stats. Still this year more than ever, I am intensely interested in viewing trends looking backwards at the stats and comparing that perspective from that of being (literally) in the field live, with clients and other agents. The chart below is from Brokermetrics and is based upon actual MLS (Multiple Listings Service) data from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (aka BAREIS). It looks at the number of newly ratified contracts (pending sales not yet closed) versus the number of new listings month to month from July 2006 through July 2008, for all residential sales in Sonoma County, at all price ranges. This gives the most timely view of supply and demand based upon actual sales data, since pending sales take a couple of months to show up as closed sales. I can also slice and dice by price range, housing type and community, but won't do that all today, promise. An apparently typical seasonal rise in sales began in January with newly pending sales in March exceeding those of July 2006, leading to a dramatic increase in pending sales this July 2008 versus July 2006. Meanwhile the number of listings is trending slightly upward but is down overall versus two years ago. The vast majority of newly pending sales consists of bank-owned, or REO properties at the lower end of most markets. Month's supply of inventory is down to six months, and fairly balanced, at the lowest point in quite some time. The market needs to digest these REO's to achieve some stability, which it appears to be doing. If you have specific questions about Sonoma County real estate market trends, please contact me and I will pull some data for you. ...
Where Have I been Lately?–Twittering and Trulia, Healdsburg to Petaluma
You may ask where I've been as I have not posted regularly in the last couple of weeks. I have been on the run as many of my clients decided that once 4th of July had passed it was time to get going on new listings or to pick up their efforts for purchasing new homes. A very typically busy couple of weeks in an untypical real estate year. Despite the depressing news in the media, people still have legitimate reasons and motivations to buy and sell, and fully half of the market in Sonoma County has nothing to do with distressed properties. That half of the transactions last month DID have to do with distressed properties (bank-owned properties or short sales) is an amazing statistic, however, one we have discussed previously. Two other factors (let's call them the T factors) which have taken away from Blog post time however, have been Trulia and Twitter, hence the new links on my sidebar to the left. Trulia is a wonderful ("truly delightful real estate search" they say) combination of the social networking aspects of Facebook or LinkedIn and the search aspects of a Google. Who networks on Trulia? Buyers and Sellers of real estate and all kinds of real estate professionals. I spent a few weeks in odd moments on Trulia fleshing out my profile and reviewing and answering multiple questions on Sonoma County communities or various real estate topics. It has been interesting to figure out the rules of the community (since I am not 20 years old and have only participated in LinkedIn and Plaxo in the past). I've also enjoyed pitching in advice and comments on various communities in Sonoma County from Petaluma to Healdsburg, and networking with other agents locally and elsewhere. I've even managed to connect with a few buyers and sellers in the process, so there is a business justification for my efforts. At the same time, everyone was talking about Twitter. I saw all these strange short posts on Kevin Boer's 3 Oceans Real Estate site and could not make any sense of them. Seemed like a feature in search of a solution. UNTIL I joined in and got a Twitter Account of my very own. Then the fun began--it takes a little bit to get Twitter, Kevin is convinced that the...
Tour Twitter heard on the Grapevine–mixing metaphors and maybe technology
It is going to be a gorgeous day to check out the latest West County new listings (Sebastopol MLS tour) tomorrow--I will have on my walking shoes and sunscreen, and James the trusty navigator on my TL will be well rested so he can plot out the best driving strategy for me and Izetta and hopefully another pal or two so we can economize on gas. (author's note:Â I had hoped to Twitter my way through tour but that didn't happen this week, maybe next time.) Hopefully there will be some good munchies provided by the hosting agents since for some reason there are a pile of properties this week when there have been very few the last week or two. It is important for listing agents to incent their peers to tour their new listings, especially in a crowded field. At one property last year (a country property listing of mine in Sebastopol) had so much going on that in order to convince agents to wait around and smell the roses, i.e. learn all the property had to offer, I had a masseur doing chair massages in one room, a lender pouring hot-mulled wine and apple cider in the kitchen, and bagels, lox and cream cheese for all. Two of us directed traffic and parking as well. I lost my voice after hours of tour-guiding. It was worth the effort because we had 3 offers the first week and sold for over asking to a buyer who is now very happy in his new country home. This in last year's down market. What kind of creative broker tour incentives have you seen? Anyway, I will report on the latest new West Sonoma County properties after tomorrow's tour. Heard on the Grapevine: In Healdsburg, I know of a great new listing coming up in early July--a classic Craftsman bungalow walking distance to the Healdsburg plaza. About 1600 sf with a new roof and paint, new deck and some interior updating, but a lot more room to improve (including the stand-up full length attic), or liveable and rentable now. It will be very competitively priced on a street with some gorgeous vintage homes. More info in the coming weeks. Enjoy the lovely summer solstice week and tune back in for the tour and gravevine reviews and news. I also just...
Sonoma County Market Dynamics for May 2008: Demand up, Supply of New listings down 14%
Ok so I admit that there is more to being successful in buying and selling real estate (as a realtor or an actual buyer or seller) than knowing market statistics. But the dynamics of this real estate market are changing so rapidly, and the various locations and price points add multiple additional layers of complexity, so that it bears spending some time looking at the numbers. Most of us also like to see if the trends on aggregate bear out our senses as we live and breathe in this market every day. So any of my clients or friends who ask me "How's the market?" knows that I can wax poetic on the subject. Tongue slightly in cheek. ;) Anyway, my broker Rick Laws, just released May's sales statistic for Sonoma County to us this morning and the sales up-tick we noted previously appears to be continuing or even accelerating. Add that to the big news that the number of new listings is actually down 14%. This is for all residential sales in Sonoma County at all price points. I have asked Rick for some additional breakdowns. This is a rough pass of the data because as Rick says, some of the sales reporting for last month can be a little late and dribble in over the first 10 days of the month, which is when he normally compiles the stats that you see in the Press Democrat. Closed sales are up slightly over last year at this time. But even more interestingly, newly opened escrows (sales under contract but due to close in 1 to 2 months) are up 68 percent this year over last. Even if some fall out of escrow, that is a significant boost to a trend we first noted here in early March. Even more interestingly, new listings are down 14% over last year. So where do you think the market is heading? Please click on the image above for a larger view. ...