2008 Sonoma County Real Estate: Three Quick Sales Trends
These three graphs tell the quick story of pricing, supply and demand trends for housing in Sonoma County from December 2007 through 2008. But the real story for your home depends on the price range for your house and the part of the county in which you live, or seek to live. You cannot automatically say that every home in the country dropped 30%. The price dropped most steeply in those communities with high rates of distressed housing: West Santa Rosa, East Petaluma, Windsor and Rohnert Park/Cotati. But, on average, and in summary: The median price dropped 30% year over year. The number of newly ratified sales contracts grew steadily all year and lead to a 184% increase year over year. Months supply of inventory dropped dramatically (73%) and steadily all year, exceeding the drop in prices. From a very strong buyers market in December '07, with over 14 months supply of homes at last December's sales rate, this December saw only 3.7 months supply. Six months is considered a balanced market. Anything under is a seller's market--in this case the banks who own nearly half the properties sold. ...
Months Supply of Sonoma County Entry Level Real Estate Declines Sharply
One of the most interesting measures of the tension between buyers and sellers in a real estate market is the "Months Supply of Inventory" figure. What this number tells us is the number of months it would take to sell the existing number of homes for sale at the present rate of closed sales. Buyers Market or Sellers Market? Generally six months of inventory is considered to be a market balanced between buyers and sellers. Anything less, and sellers are advantaged in negotiations. Anything more, and the trend favors buyers. Two years ago in Sonoma county, there were 6.2 months of entry level inventory for sale. When the first wave of foreclosed properties began hitting our market in force in 2007, the inventory piled up to a high point that so few properties were selling, as many more were coming on the market. Consequently, MSI (Months Supply of Inventory) ballooned to a 14.8 months supply, a strongly favored buyers market. Early in 2008, banks began slashing prices and buyers have been increasingly active ever since. (See my posts under market updates beginning in March to track this trend.) The lower priced properties, driven by foreclosures, have steadily been absorbed by first time buyers and investors. They have been gobbling up REO's so quickly that now there are only 2.7 months of inventory available at the current rate of new listings and sales, a strongly favored sellers market. If you are a buyer interested in purchasing an REO home, it is important for buyers to be prepared for the market realities especially for the most solid homes in the best locations. 1. You must have a STRONG pre-approval. In many cases first time buyers will be competing with all cash investors for the same properties. 2. You may need to make multiple offers on a stream of properties before you land the right one. 3. It ALL DEPENDS. Make sure you have a committed working relationship with a realtor who is knowledgeable about the changing market, and who knows how to present and negotiate your offer(s) in the best light. Just as sellers have learned (in some cases!) to be realistic, it is important for buyers to do the same. Happy hunting! ...
Every weekday is Broker tour day in Sonoma County Real Estate
Most Sonoma county realtors could spend a good four or five mornings per week touring new listings in Sonoma County. Some folks call them caravans. It would take at least 2 weeks of doing so to hit all the new listings on tour because of dueling chapter schedules and a large county. What a Sonoma County Realtor could do every weekday morning Monday Generally quiet but groups such as Marketing Masters and Homescopes meet on Mondays, plus there are some office meetings. Tuesday The main Santa Rosa Chapter meeting of NORBAR (the North Bay Association of Realtors). As many as 100 to 150 realtors attend a breakfast meeting, educational session and swap information on upcoming listings, buyers needs, rental requests and market updates. Property tour ensues for Santa Rosa. One week is East side, one week the west side. Mike Kelly cracks the whip so you'd better stick to business! Wednesday The Sebastopol, Russian River and Petaluma chapters of NORBAR have their breakfast meetings --see above for the agenda. Sebastopol, Russian River and Petaluma property tours. Thursday The Healdsburg chapter of NORBAR, The Cotati-Rohnert Park chapter and many of the large brokerage offices such as all the Coldwell Banker offices (separately), CPS and Prudential have their own sales meetings, marketing sessions and broker tours.  Our Santa Rosa office (over 100 agents) meeting and tour covers the East side of SONOMA county one week and the West side the next. That means we could be looking at properties from Cloverdale and Healdsburg down to Petaluma on the same morning (theoretically!). This is why FOOD at broker open houses is so important, and water on hot days. Got to fuel the troops! Friday Friday morning is the weekly meeting of the Windsor Chapter of NORBAR and the Windsor tour. Cloverdale is in their somewhere as well. That means the average Sonoma County Realtor could spend 16-20 hours per week at breakfast meetings, marketing sessions and on property tour and still not cover the whole county. How do you use your time?  How much time every week do you tour and network with other realtors? What is the main benefit of attending these meetings? (Next post an update on some interesting new listings on the market in Santa Rosa, from a lovely view home on 2 acres to 2 Rincon Valley bargains and and Junior College duplex.)...